Say it ain't so, Floyd

The day after my Tour de France posts last Tuesday, word leaked out that Landis had tested positive for doping. This is probably the worst scenario possible for the Tour and American cyclists, and for Landis specifically. Even if the test is a false positive, the damage is already done, and no one will completely believe that his superhuman effort in stage 17 was not aided by artificial means. This is a huge blight on the sport and on the Tour. Roberto Heras, former Discovery team rider and winner of last year's Vuelta d'Españe was subsequently disqualified because of doping, the top four favorites of the Tour were excluded from this year's Tour, and still the winner is suspected of doping. Doping is clearly a problem in this sport, and will continue to be until more effective tests are developed. It's difficult to say that the sport should be tougher; first offense is a two year ban (like the ones being served by Tyler Hamilton and the one recently completed by David Millar) and second offense is a life-time ban (like the one issued to Canadian cyclist Genevieve Jeanson). Cycling performs year-round random testing, and in the Tour, the winner of each stage, the leader of the race, and several random others are tested every day. The severity of the punishment is aggravated by the uncertainty in many of these testing methods.

Landis is said to have tested positive for testosterone doping after winning stage 17, specifically, that his T/E ratio exceeded the criteria of 4:1. Testosterone doping is difficult to detect, since the body naturally produces testosterone, and the levels vary day to day and from individual to individual. This test attempts to circumvent those problems by comparing the level of testosterone to another hormone in the body. If an athlete is taking testosterone, there will be elevated levels compared to other hormones in his blood, although there are many simple methods to overcome this effect, such as using a patch to deliver the testosterone in continuous doses, and by removing the patch as little as an hour before testing will eliminate the discrepancy. Another test attempts to detect testosterone that was not produced by the athlete, and although it's not clear, experts believe that Landis has the right to request this test on the B sample. This test, called IRMS (isotope ratio mass spectrometry), performs carbon isotope analyses to differentiate natural and synthetic steroids. Of course, by storing your own body's testosterone, this test could be faked out as well.

This article in Velo News summarizes the issues so far.
This article from the New Yorker discusses performance-enhancing testing and athletes (see section 3 for specifics about T/E testing)
This blog is written by a graduate school reasearcher and gives a great deal of technical information about the types of testing.

Observations
1) The lab that performed the test and leaked the information to the media is the same French lab that leaked the false reports that Lance Armstrong's 1999 samples had tested positive for doping.
2) Landis was tested six times previously during the race, and none of these tests indicated testosterone doping. Many experts are saying it would be impossible to create that drastic a change in levels by taking testosterone.
3) There have been many, many criticisms of this test previous to this incident, and every cyclist who has challenged a positive result in this test has prevailed
4) Many experts have indicated that other factors could produce these effects, including Landis' (legal) cortisone shots, alcohol use, and Landis' thyroid problems. Other factors can cause swings in the ratio, such as dehydration, fatigue, diet, and depletion of reserves over the 21 day race.
5) Even if the additional testing indicates that Landis is not guilty of doping, the Federation could still impose the same penalty for testing positive based on the original test
6) If Landis is disqualified, Oscar Pereiro will be crowned as Tour winner. Andreas Klöden (T-Mobile) be second and Carlos Sastre (CSC) would move up from fourth to a podium spot
7) If Landis is disqualified, it would be the first doping-related disqualification in Tour history, which says something about either the efficacy The top four finishers of the 1904 Tour were disqualified for cheating, but because they didn't ride the entire course.

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Blue Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson

Blue Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson.

Le Tour 2006 redux

Most of my friends know that I'm a big Tour fan, but none of them are big fans. I think one of the reasons I'm a fan because we lived in Waterloo, Belgium when I was a kid, and it was extremely popular, especially during the reign of Eddy Merckx. I got several calls during the Tour, and I had to beg them not to tell me what happened before I could go home and watch my TiVo'ed version of the live race start to finish.

It's been a big dent in my social life, but I've watched every minute of the live coverage so far, probably close to eighty hours in three weeks. I just knew that as much as I enjoyed watching Armstrong dominate the race, that this would be one of the most interesting Tours in the last few years. Operation Puerto disappointed me, because I was looking forward to Ulrich and Basso duking it out, and maybe Vino having some impact on the overall, but the end result was awesome. One of the great Tours, and definitely no asterisk.

Observations
1) The accomplishments of Lance Armstrong are in sharp relief to this Tour, where in the last stage at least three riders had a good chance to win the race. Armstrong wasn't ever in this much danger that I can recall, even though there was some suspense, you always knew he was going to win by the last week.
2) It's clear that cycling is a team sport, and what the team does impacts the race in a huge way. Several team mistakes dictated the finishing order of the race, including Phonak allowing Oscar Pereiro to gain back 30 minutes, and CSC letting Landis gain back the 9 minutes he needed to win the race
3) It's 21 stages for a reason, if it was a shorter race, it wouldn't be won by the best overall cyclise

Surprises
1) The poor showing of the Americans, despite Landis' win. Maybe all the hype was in the American press, but I know that Leipheimer (13th) and Hincapie (32nd) were top-5 favorites before the race (after Operation Puerto). I expected more out of Bobby Julich (crashed) and Zabriski (74th and no time trial win).
2) The poor showing of Team Discovery. Hincapie didn't come through, and Popovych (25th) was supposed to be at least an outside contender.
3) Freire abandoning before the last stage, even though he was out of the runnign for the green jersey, he was almost in Paris. He must have been pretty sick.
4) A much more entertaining Tour without a dominant rider
5) No team time-trial, one of the more beautiful events in sports. The race organizers must feel that it's an unfair advantage to the better teams.
6) Another compelling story of an American rider overcoming long odds and a medical problem to win the Tour, ala Greg LeMonde and his hunting accident, Lance Armstrong and his bout with cancer.

Unsurprises
1) A very tight race right up until the end. No one could totally dominate the race, no one out of this group is the next Lance, at least, not for a few years. Landis won't have the longevity, and it's doubtful he could have made the comeback against climbers like Basso, Ulrich and Mancebo.
2) No Frenchie on the podium again this year
3) Next year looks to be just as wide open

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Floyd Landis

Here are two awesome interviews of Floyd Landis, winner of this year's Tour de France. Both of these were done before the race and before he announced that he would be having hip replacement surgery following the Tour. The first is an Outside magazine article by Daniel Coyle, interviewing Landis and Dave Zabriskie, another American Tour de France cyclist. The second is a Bicyling Magazine article documenting an interview of Floyd by Dave Zabriskie. This is one of the funniest things I've read in a while, because they are both so quirky and obviously very good friends. My favorite part is where Floyd's wife has to interrupt to tell him to be nice
Dave insults his boss's intellect and Floyd asks him if he's sure
at the end they ask if they can take out the offensive stuff
It's too funny to describe.

Outside Magazine article
Bicycling Magazine article

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Green Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson

Green Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson.

Le Champion avec Panache

Photograph Bruno Bade, Ingrid Hoffmann, Jean-Christophe Moreau
Wow. Incroyable! Amazing. Epic. After Wednesday's post, I thought I was going to have to eat my words. Floyd Landis lost over 11 minutes on Thursday in stage 16, in just the final 15 km. I thought his goose was cooked, his whole Tour done. One of the observations I was going to make Wednesday was that it looked like Landis was going to win the yellow jersey without winning a single stage, something that has happened before, but is unusual. Then in stage 17 he went out and in what I believe is the single best day riding in the Tour de France I have ever seen, and I've been watching since 1988, he beat every rider in the race for the stage 17 win. An historic stage, one that will be mentioned in the same sentence with the great ones.

Photograph BBC Sport
This was much more difficult than just a one-man breakaway, like Michael Rasmussen's in stage 16. It was more difficult not because the route was more tougher, stage 16 was the queen stage of the tour, the most difficult in this year's Tour and one of the most difficult in recent memory. It was more difficult because when he gained back most of the time he had lost, when the teams realized that he wasn't going to fade out in the end like he did the previous day, or like the lesser contenders did, there were four or five teams that wanted to chase him down, that needed to chase him down, and they couldn't. When he had gained back all the time and more, the pelaton still couldn't gain on him, the leaders couldn't gain on him, no one in the race could gain on him. And what is most amazing, the word had apparently leaked out that morning that he was going to attack early, and several riders told him not to go, that it would be committing race suicide, and he told them "you better drink some Coke, cause I'm going." Even when they knew he was going, they couldn't match him on that stage. That was his stamp on the race, the indisputable statement that he was the best rider in the bunch, and that no one was going to beat him. "A performance that will go down as one of the greatest in the history of the Tour de France" says Eurosport.

Photograph Bruno Bade, Ingrid Hoffmann, Jean-Christophe Moreau
The time trial was a formality, none of the other GC contenders expected to take back time on a long time trial from Floyd Landis. Not in the form he showed on Thursday. Not when the jersey was on the line. Not when he finally got angry. And for the eighth year in a row, an American will ride into Paris in the yellow jersey. How does that taste, Frenchies?

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Separating le wheat from le chaff

Yesterday on the monster stage to l'Alpe D'Huez Floyd Landis showed that it's his race to lose. He gained time on all but one of the other GC contenders, and looked strong enough to have won the stage if he wanted to. He beat the remaining GC contenders by about 40 seconds, and should beat them in the similar length stage 19 time-trial. There are two more mountain stages to defend, with today's stage being possibly harder than yesterday's, and a fairly mild stage tomorrow. If he comes out of the mountains in yellow, he won't give it up.

Biggest Surprises
1) Oscar Pereiro coming in within 10 seconds of keeping the yellow jersey
2) CSC blowing up Voigt and Zabriskie launching Frank Schleck to a monster stage win. This was a brilliant tactical move, and Bjarne Riis might be the smartest manager at the Tour, no disrespect to Bruyneel
3) David de la Fuente keeping (and extending) the lead in the mountains, when no one gave him a chance once they hit the big alpine stages
4) Rabobank likely giving up on the polka-dot jersey to support Denis Menchov. Mickael Rasmussen is 35 points down, and he would have to win one of the remaining mountain stages with de la Fuente finishing out of the money, that seems unlikely the way the Spanish rookie is hanging on.
5) Landis can win despite having a somewhat weak (albeit complete) team
6) Landis can win without winning a single stage, although if he comes out of the Alps in yellow, he'll probably win the Stage 19 time-trial

Biggest Unsurprises
1) Tom Boonan abandoning in the first Alpine stage. He hasn't beat McEwan in anything that mattered so far, there's no reason to suspect he could beat him on the other side of the Alps
2) Thomas Voeckler
3) It was most obvious today that cycling is a team sport. Axel Merckx falling back to pace Landis, CSC using everything it had to win the stage, and Jens Voigt (only a couple of days after a huge break in stage 13) had enough strength after launching Schleck, and then crashing, to fall back and help Sastre crack Cadel Evans, Michael Rasmussen catching and pacing Denis Menchov up the last few kilometers, et cetera.
4) The French press are mad at Armstrong, this time because he called the losing French World Cup team a bunch of a-holes, when everyone knows that it is the French press that are all a-holes

Observations
1) Levi Leipheimer can jump as high as sixth, but that's probably it unless someone crashes. He deserves a top ten finish, but not a podium, because of the terrible time trial and first Pyrenean stage. Remember, he was 62nd overall at one time.
2) Likely top five are Landis, Denis Menchov, Carlos Sastre, Andreas Klöden and Cadel Evans, with Landis winning oveer Menchov, but the final podium position is in dispute
3) With Booden out, McEwan has won the green jersey, he's only got to mark Oscar Freire, and even then he's got a 45 point cushion with three sprinting stages left
4) Jan Ullrich and Oscar Sevilla may be kicked off the T-Mobile team, missing the team's July 13 deadline for explaining their role in the Operation Puerto scandal
5) George Hincapie arrived for the Tour at 155 pounds, against his usual 175 (he's 6'3") and reportedly is having trouble eating enough to keep up with the massive energy expenditures that the Tour exacts. I could possible have a new gig as Discovery's new eating coach.
6) Vive les American, no all-American podium like Bob Roll predicted, but probably an American in yellow. SUCK ON THAT, FRENCHY AMERICAN HATERS!

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Le Crunch Time

Today is the second and final rest day in the Tour de France. There haven't been the huge changes I thought there would be since my last post 9 days ago. Floyd Landis is still in the best position to win, and he still needs to stay with the other GC contenders in the Alps to have a chance to win. He's probably got the best chance, since he will be expected to take a minute or two out of everyone on the Stage 19 time-trial, like he did in Stage 7. Right now he's got about a minute on Denis Menchov, who is probably the biggest surprise still in the Tour. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and Andréas Klöden look like the only remaining GC who have a shot at the win, barring some unlikely Popovych and Leipheimer will probably top 10 finish. Marcus Fothen looks like he could get a top 10 finish too, which doesn't bode well for Levi Leipheimer's continued leadership of Gerolsteiner.



Observations
1) The sprinters are done until stage 18, then they only have three more stages to duke it out. Most likely, Robbie McEwen will be wearing green in Paris. Oscar Freire looked like he had a shot but the team is supporting Denis Menchov, not him.
2) A team can either have a sprinter or a GC contender, not both, unless they are both named Eddie Merckx
3) Leipheimer is out of contention for the win, but could still finish respectable if he doesn't have another crappy time trial
4) There is no leader of the Discovery team, but Popovych gets it by default
5) The leader of the T-Mobile team is still unclear, but it will be either Andreas Klöden or Michael Rogers, and the Pyrenees Alps will decide
6) Tom Boonen cannot beat Robbie McEwen this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets shut out of stage wins for the 2006 Tour
7) There will probably only be one American (if any) on the podium in Paris and his name is likely to be Floyd. It's his race to lose, albeit only by sixty-one seconds.
8) Americans have won 10 of the last 20 Tours, and it would be awesome to put another American in yellow and rub the Frenchies noses in it
9) If Tyler Hamilton is implicated in Operation Puerto, which many people are now saying, he'll get a lifetime ban from cycling. He and his wife did an interview on the OLN coverage, but they didn't say anything about that.
10) Discovery is going to have to make some big changes to be a player again.

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Bethfest 2006

Bethie had a "white-trash" party on Saturday night, and this is Mike's costume. He brought the cheese-whiz, boy. Click on the picture to see the video.

Two Trains Running by Andrew Vachss

Two Trains Running by Andrew Vachss.

I am a geek

Back in the late 80's and early 90's I used to subscribe to PC Magazine and PC Computing, about the only two computer magazines out at that time . One of the coolest things about these magazines was the back page, where both magazines had a humor column. PC's was called Control-Alt-Delete, and it had funny stories and pictures of funny ads and store-front signs. PCC's was by an author I had never heard of before (his name was Penn Jillette, if you don't know who he is, just follow the link) but I figured out from context he was a magician. And funny. And a geek about computers, like me. His columns were hilarious. And every one had a reference to some model/actress that I had never heard of (her name was Uma Thurman, if you don't know who she is, just follow this link) I ran across a listing of his articles here, and while most of the technology is dated, as is some of the Clinton jokes, most of the humor is still there. Start reading with the earliest one (at the bottom), but if you don't remember computers without Windows, you may not get some of the jokes.

Impulse Purchase

What's the biggest impulse purchase you've ever made? Not something you were shopping for, or had always wanted, or even thought about, but just said "I want that" and bought it. I'm usually pretty good about researching things, and I always sleep on it before I make a big purchase. But I was reading the Tour de France Blog this weekend and read this post, and checked out the link to Softride. I saw the ad for the indoor cycling bike, and the demo unit special, and I went click click click and bought it in about ten seconds. If you have your credit card number (it's 1234 5678 9012 3456) and expiration date (1/2007) memorized, and using the Google Toolbar autofill feature, you can buy something that big that quickly. I guess it's because I've been thinking about getting in shape, and I've been watching the three hours a day of Tour coverage. Also, it seems to be a pretty cool bike, it was linked (not this model, but the site) to a cool cycling blog, and it looked like a great deal (25% off demo models). All of those factors converged to a perfect storm of impulse buying. Oh, yeah, I almost forgot, no tax and free shipping, too. Which is what is great about buying online.



Do I have buyer's remorse? Not really, I did some comparison shopping and it looks like a good deal. It comes with two seats and the pedals accomodate both cycling shoes and regular shoes. It has a cycling computer with heart rate. It seems to have all the adjustments that I think I need. So we'll see when I get it and set it up.

Pretender by C. J. Cherryh

Pretender by C. J. Cherryh.

Le Plot Thickens

Today was the real start of the Tour de France GC competition, and several of the favorites are already out of the running. Literally, in the case of Bobby Julich, who crashed hard on a tight corner at a traffic circle. He was the leader of the CSC team after Ivan Basso was excluded due to Operation Puerto. Jens Voigt, a perennial CSC strongman, finished DFL. Another CSC rider, David Zabriski, was a favorite to win the stage but ended up 13th, almost two minutes behind the winner Serguei Gonchar (however he spells it) of T-Mobile. T-Mobile, which would have been led by Jan Ullrich if he hadn't been excluded due to Operation Puerto as well, dominated the time-trial, with four riders in the top ten of the stage and in the top ten of the GC, most certainly knocking Discovery out of top team spot. Discovery's highest rider is Paolo Salvvodelli at 13th.

The Americans, except for Floyd Landis, screwed the pooch. Overall contenders George Hincapie, Levi Leipheimer, and Bobby Julich finished 24th @2:42, 96th @6:06, and DNF, respectively. Zabriski had a decent ride (13th for the stage, @1:57, and is 10th overall in the GC) except he's a time-trial specialist and should be winning these stages since he doesn't stand a chance in the mountains. Landis had a good ride and was only beaten by 1:01 in an unexpectedly inspired performance by the Ukranian. He also had a mechanical problem on the course with his weird handlebars after the officials made him change the angle of them, losing probably 30 seconds or so by changing to his spare TT bike.

It's impossible to watch the winner Serguei Gonchar jumping up and down on the podium and not join in his exuberance at winning the stage and taking the yellow jersey. At 36 years of age winning a long time-trial stage and leading the overall Tour has got to be the pinnacle of his entire career.

Photo copyright Fotoreporter Sirotti
Observations
1) The sprinters are done wearing the yellow jersey, it will be the time-trialers for a few days until they get into the Pyranees, then the real GC contenders will emerge
2) The sprinters can either win stages or wear the yellow jersey, not both, unless your name is Mario Cipollini
3) Leipheimer is out of contention ("Worst time trial of my life"), he'll have to try for a stage win somewhere
4) The leader of the Discovery team is still unclear, but it will be either Salvodelli or Hincapie, and the mountains will decide
5) The leader of the T-Mobile team is still unclear, but it will be either Andreas Klöden or Michael Rogers, and the mountains will decide
6) Tom Boonen can only beat Robbie McEwen in a time-trial
7) Thor Hushovd can't even beat Robbie McEwen in a time-trial
8) There will probably only be one American (if any) on the podium in Paris and his name is likely to be Floyd
9) Ratings are down more than 50% in the US from the Lance era
10) Lance says he'll be in France for the last week of the Tour, maybe that will help the ratings. I doubt it.
11) After Operation Puerto, if Lance had decided to just ride one more, he'd have won eight Tours instead of seven
12) If Jan Ullrich hadn't been booted he'd already have won the Tour, unless Lance had decided to just ride one more, or if Basso could have kept up in the time-trials and beat him in the mountains, which might have been tough as good as T-Mobile looks
13) I thought the Tour would be much more exciting when the outcome was uncertain, but I think this much uncertainty is chaos

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Le Tour 2006

Copyright Société du Tour de France.
I love the Tour de France, I think it comes from growing up in Belgium. The Belgians are crazy about cycling, I knew who Eddie Merckx was when I was five years old. I was especially looking forward to this tour, because no matter how big a Lance Armstrong fan you are, it gets little boring watching the same guy win seven times in a row. Kind of like being a Cubs fan except in reverse. I thought this year was going to be exciting, until the day before the start. Then Operation Puerto and the number one, two, and three favorites were pulled out of the race, and another favorite could not compete because his team couldn't field the minimum number of riders. It would be like suspending the two starting quarterbacks the day before the Superbowl for gambling on football. Huge huge story, and potentially crippling to the Tour de France, because the story has yet to be completely heard. And it may result in Tyler Hamilton (and possibly others) getting a lifetime ban from professional cycling. The good news is that no American (other than Hamilton) or Team Discovery riders (including Lance) were implicated, and it opens the door for the American GC (overall) hopefuls like George Hincapie, Levi Leipheimer, Floyd Landis. Alejandro Valverde crashing out of the Tour on day 4 eliminates one more of the top contenders.

Who I'm Rooting For:
1) The Americans
2) Team Discovery
3) Norwegians (Thor is the only one, and it looks like he's out of the race for the green jersey because of yesterday's relegation for irregular sprinting)
4) Belgians (Tom Boonan is a favorite because he rode with US Postal in 2002, although he doesn't look as unbeatable in the 2006 Tour as earlier this year and in the 2005 tour)

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